Political ads · 2026 · CA

California House District 52 2026: the ads, and who's paying for them

Juan Vargas won · 69.7% to 30.3%, with an estimated 69% of the vote counted · Called by AP on Nov 3

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Jeff Belle (Republican) and Juan Vargas (Democrat) are the nominees for California's 52nd congressional district in the November 3, 2026 general election. Juan Vargas is the incumbent. By their latest FEC reports, Jeff Belle's campaign had raised $27,000 (through October 14, 2026) and Juan Vargas's campaign $836,000 (through October 14, 2026). Outside groups have reported $8 for Juan Vargas and $0 against.

Jeff Belle (REP), Juan Vargas (DEM, incumbent). 1 other filed with the FEC; any ads they ran are below. 0 ads analyzed, 0 with at least one technique in the copy. Newest first. The paid-for-by line is the advertiser's own filing.

Also on every California ballot: 14 statewide ballot measures → The ballot wording and the official arguments, read for rhetorical techniques.

How to vote in California

From California's official election office. Each line links to the official page it came from.

Registration	Register by Mon, Oct 19 (Conditional (same-day) registration Oct 20 - Nov 3). Same-day registration: Conditional registration, provisional ballot, Oct 20 - Nov 3 (passed)Source: sos.ca.gov ↗Source: sos.ca.gov ↗
Early voting in person	Mon, Oct 5 to (Varies by county; VCA vote centers open Oct 24)Source: sos.ca.gov ↗
By mail	Anyone can vote by mail; return it by Tue, Nov 3 (Postmarked by Nov 3 and received by Nov 10; drop-off by 8 p.m. Nov 3) (passed)Source: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov ↗Source: sos.ca.gov ↗
Election Day	Tue, Nov 3. Polls: 7 a.m. - 8 p.m. (passed)Source: sos.ca.gov ↗
ID at the polls	Generally no ID required; some first-time voters who registered by mail/online without ID may be askedSource: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov ↗

Check your registration and polling place ↗ California's official election site ↗

Checked October 8, 2026. Rules can change; confirm with the official site before you go.

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Money in this race

From FEC filings for 2025–26. Outside spending is money a group spends on its own about a candidate — TV and online ads, mail, canvassing. It is not a donation to the campaign, and the candidate does not control it. Supporting means it was spent to help that candidate win; Opposing means it was spent to defeat them, usually on attack ads. Groups report it within 24 or 48 hours as the election nears. Raised is the campaign's own fundraising, as of its latest quarterly report. Largest donors come from each outside spender's own FEC receipts, with each donor's share of its itemized receipts; donors under $100,000 are not named. People are shown with the employer and occupation they reported. A donor that is itself a political committee is shown with its own largest donors. Companies and nonprofits don't report their funders to the FEC, so the trail ends there, and the page says so.

Jeff Belle (REP)

Raised: $27K through 2026-10-14 individuals $20K · PACs $0 · cash on hand $82
Outside spending: none reported

Bundled through PACs: none reported · FEC bulk data of 2026-11-01

All filings at the FEC ↗

Juan Vargas (DEM, incumbent)

Raised: $836K through 2026-10-14 individuals $263K · PACs $572K · cash on hand $318K
Outside spending: $8 supporting Vargas · latest reported 2025-03-05
Largest outside spenders: PLANNED PARENTHOOD ACTION FUND OF THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST PAC — $8 supporting Vargas

Bundled through PACs: $72K through 2 PACs · FEC bulk data of 2026-11-01 AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE — $71K from 70 gifts Lobbyist/registrant PAC AMERICAN COUNCIL OF ENGINEERING COMPANIES (ACEC/PAC) — $1,000 from 1 gift Lobbyist/registrant PAC

135 PACs gave directly — alphabetical; the legal limit is $5,000 per election

AFLAC INCORPORATED PAC $1,000
AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOC. INT'L PAC $2,500
ALLY FINANCIAL INC. ADVOCACY PAC $7,500
AMALGAMATED SUGAR COMPANY PAC $1,000
AMERICAN ASSOC. FOR JUSTICE PAC (AAJ PAC) $7,500
AMERICAN BANKERS ASSOCIATION PAC (BANKPAC) $6,500
AMERICAN COUNCIL OF ENGINEERING COMPANIES (ACEC PAC) $9,000
AMERICAN COUNCIL OF LIFE INSURERS PAC-PTPP $2,000
AMERICAN CRYSTAL SUGAR COMPANY PAC $10K
AMERICAN EXPRESS PAC $4,000
AMERICAN FED. OF STATE, COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES PEOPLE PAC $7,500
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS, AFL-CIO COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION $5,000
AMERICAN FINANCIAL SERVICES ASSOCIATION PAC $5,500
AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF CPA'S PAC (AICPA PAC) $10K
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE (AIPAC-PAC) $10K
AMERICAN PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE ASSN. PAC $5,500
AMERICAN SUGAR CANE LEAGUE PAC $3,000
AMERICAN'S CREDIT UNION PAC OF CREDIT UNION NAT'L ASSN. INC. $10K
ANESTHESIA SERVICE MEDICAL GRP ADVOCACY FUND $2,000
AT&T INC. EMPLOYEE FEDERAL PAC $2,000
BAE SYSTEMS USA PAC $1,000
BLUE SHIELD OF CALIFORNIA (SHIELDPAC) $2,500
BMO FINANCIAL CORP GOOD GOVERNANCE FUND $3,000
BREAD FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC. PAC $10K
BUILD PAC, NATIONAL ASSN OF HOME BUILDERS PAC $6,000
CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORPORATION ASSOCIATES POLITICAL FUND $4,000
CASTEN FOR CONGRESS $1,000
CITIGROUP INC. PAC - FEDERAL $2,000
CME GROUP, INC. PAC $5,000
CNA FINANCIAL CORP CITIZENS FOR GOOD GOV'T $2,500
COMCAST CORPORATION & NBCUNIVERSAL PAC $1,500
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE COUNCIL PAC $1,500
COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS PAC $10K
COX ENTERPRISES PAC (COXPAC) INC. $5,000
CROWE PAC $1,000
DELOITTE PAC $10K
DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY FOR ISRAEL (DMFI PAC) $2,500
DEMOCRATS WIN FUND $1,000
EDISON INTERNATIONAL PAC $6,000
EMPLOYEES OF NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP. PAC (ENGPAC) $4,000
EMPLOYEES OF RTX CORPORATION PAC $1,500
ENACT HOLDINGS INC. PAC (ENACT PAC) $2,000
ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP, INC. PAC $5,000
ENGINEERS POL. EDU COMM./INT'L UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS $2,500
ERNST & YOUNG PAC $10K
ESSENT US HOLDINGS INC. PAC $2,000
EXPERIAN NORTH AMERICA, INC. PAC (EXPERIAN PAC) $2,500
FAIR ISAAC CORPORATION (FICO PAC) $5,000
FLORIDA SUGAR CANE LEAGUE PAC $1,000
FOLEY & LARDNER POLITICAL FUND INC. $1,000
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION PAC (GDC PAC) $6,700
HEINEKEN USA GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND $1,000
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL PAC $5,500
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC. EMPLOYEES PAC (HIIPAC) $1,000
INDEPENDENT COMMUNITY BANKERS OF AMERICA PAC (ICBPAC) $3,000
INDEPENDENT INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS OF AMERICA, INC. PAC (INSURPAC) $5,000
INT'L ASSOC OF SHEET METAL AIR RAIL & TRANSPORTATION WORKERS PAC $10K
INT'L UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERS LOCAL 12 VOLUNTARY LEG FUND $2,500
INVESTMENT COMPANY INSTITUTE PAC $5,000
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. FEDERAL PAC $1,500
KINECTA FEDERAL CREDIT UNION FEDERAL PAC $2,000
KPMG PARTNERS/PRINCIPALS & EMPLOYEES PAC $2,500
LA BAMBA PAC $7,500
LIBERTY MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANY PAC $1,500
LOCKHEED MARTIN EMPLOYEES PAC $2,000
LPL FINANCIAL LLC PAC (LPL PAC) $2,500
MACHINISTS NON-PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE $5,000
MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES INC. PAC $1,000
METLIFE INC. EMPLOYEES POLITICAL PARTICIPATION FUND A $6,500
MICHIGAN SUGAR COMPANY GROWERS PAC $1,000
MINN-DAK FARMERS COOPERATIVE SUGAR PAC (MDSPAC) $1,000
MORGAN STANLEY PAC $5,000
MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSN PAC (MORPAC) $5,000
MORTGAGE GUARANTY INSURANCE CORP PAC (MGICPAC) $2,500
NASDAQ PAC $2,500
NAT'L AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN PAC $5,000
NAT'L ASSN OF CONVENIENCE STORES (NACSPAC) $2,500
NAT'L ASSN OF INSURANCE & FINANCIAL ADVISORS PAC (NAIFAPAC) $10K
NAT'L AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSN PAC (NADAPAC) $2,500
NAT'L RURAL ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE ASSN. (AMERICA'S ELECTRIC COOPERATIVES PAC) $5,000
NATIONAL ACTIVE & RETIRED FEDERAL EMPLOYEES ASSN (NARFE PAC) $1,000
NATIONAL APARTMENT ASSN PAC (NAAPAC) $3,000
NATIONAL ASSN OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES (NAMIC) PAC $5,000
NATIONAL ASSN. OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (RPAC) $10K
NATIONAL ASSOC. OF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS, INC. PAC $1,000
NATIONAL BEER WHOLESALERS ASSN PAC (NBWA PAC) $2,500
NATIONAL ELECTRICAL CONTRACTORS ASSN PAC (NECAPAC) $10K
NATIONAL VENTURE CAPITAL ASSOCIATION PAC $3,000
NATIONWIDE MUTUAL INSURANCE CO. FINANCIAL & INVESTMENTS PAC $5,000
NATSO PAC $2,500
NEW YORK LIFE INSURANCE CO. PAC $7,500
NMHC PAC $10K
NMI HOLDINGS INC. PAC $2,000
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL FEDERAL PAC $1,500
PACE OF CA SCHOOL EMPLOYEES ASSN-LOCAL, STATE, FEDERAL CANDIDATES $5,500
PACIFIC COAST COUNCIL PAC $2,500
PG&E CORPORATION EMPLOYEES ENERGY PAC $1,000
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS PAC $10K
PRIMERICA INC. PAC $1,500
RADIAN GROUP INC. PAC (RAD PAC) $2,000
RON KIND FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE $4,000
SCHOOLSFIRST FCU EMPLOYEES FEDERAL PAC $2,500
SENTRY INSURANCE A MUTUAL CO. FEDERAL PAC $5,000
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BEET SUGAR COOPERATIVE PAC $2,000
SUPPORTING HOUSE PROBLEM SOLVERS PAC $2,000
T-MOBILE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (T-PAC) $1,000
TD BANK N.A. PAC $5,000
THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP. FEDERAL PAC $1,500
THE BOEING COMPANY PAC $3,000
THE DEPOSITORY TRUST & CLEARING CORPORATION PAC (DTCC PAC) $4,000
THE DOCTORS COMPANY FEDERAL PAC (DOCPAC) $3,000
THE GUARDIAN LIFE INSURANCE CO. OF AMERICA FED PAC $2,000
THE HARTFORD FINANCIAL SERVICES GRP., INC. PAC $4,000
THE NEA FUND FOR CHILDREN & PUBLIC EDUCATION $2,000
THE OPTIONS CLEARING CORPORATION PAC $2,000
THE TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC. (TPAC) $2,500
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS PAC $1,500
TITLE INDUSTRY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (TIPAC) $2,500
TRANSUNION PAC (TU PAC) $2,500
TRUIST FINANCIAL CORPORATION FEDERAL PAC $2,500
TRUSTAGE PAC $2,000
UBS AMERICAS INC. PAC $10K
UNION PACIFIC CORP. FUND FOR EFFECTIVE GOV'T. $2,000
UNITED FOOD & COMM. WORKERS INT'L. UNION $3,000
UNUM GROUP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (UNUM PAC) $1,000
US BANCORP FEDERAL PAC $4,000
US MORTGAGE INSURERS PAC (USMI PAC) $2,500
USAA EMPLOYEE PAC $5,000
VANGUARD COMMITTEE FOR RESPONSIBLE GOV'T. $6,000
VISA INC. PAC $4,000
WALMART, INC. PAC FOR RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENT $1,500
WELLS FARGO & CO. EMPLOYEES GOOD GOVERNMENT FEDERAL FUND II $6,000
WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION PAC (WABPAC) $5,000
WHOLESALE & SPECIALTY INSURANCE ASSN (WSIA) PAC $5,000
ZURICH HOLDING CO. OF AMERICA CMTE GOOD GOV'T (Z-PAC) $2,500

All filings at the FEC ↗

No campaign ads analyzed for this race yet.

What this page is

An ad is on this page because its own "Paid for by" line is a campaign in this race; or it comes from a national Senate group and ran mostly in CA; or it ran mostly in CA and names a candidate — unless its sponsor is a campaign for some other office. Ads from outside groups appear alongside the campaigns' own.
Campaigns run one text as many separate ads. Identical text from the same sponsor is one card here, marked with its number of variants.
A technique is a specific rhetorical move in the wording, found by our model and explained in one line. It is not a claim that the ad is false.
Claims are checked when a reader asks: press "Check this ad's claims" on a card. Running a check and seeing its verdicts are part of Semblen Pro, because each check costs money to run; anyone can see which claims an ad makes. The ten ads with the most money behind them in each race are checked ahead of time.
Claim verdicts say what the cited sources say. A verdict that an ad is wrong or misleading is shown only when it cites an established fact-checker or an institutional record — Congress, a federal agency, a court — and its confidence is not low; a weaker one is not shown at all. Each verdict shows what it rests on and how confident it is. If we got one wrong, press Disagree: a verdict that readers dispute and no one defends comes down.
Video ads come from the campaigns' own YouTube channels; the transcript is analyzed. Meta ads are analyzed on their text; their video and images are not, yet.