Political ads · 2026 · TX

Texas House District 31 2026: the ads, and who's paying for them

John Carter won · 53.8% to 44.8% · Called by AP on Nov 4

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John Carter (Republican), Justin Early (Democrat) and Greg Stoker (Green) are the nominees for Texas's 31st congressional district in the November 3, 2026 general election. John Carter is the incumbent. By their latest FEC reports, John Carter's campaign had raised $1.5 million (through October 14, 2026), Justin Early's campaign $292,000 (through October 14, 2026) and Greg Stoker's campaign $89,000 (through October 14, 2026). Outside groups have reported $63,000 for John Carter and $0 against; $9,000 for Justin Early and $0 against.

John Carter (REP, incumbent), Justin Early (DEM), Greg Stoker (GRE). 9 others filed with the FEC; any ads they ran are below. 0 ads analyzed, 0 with at least one technique in the copy. Newest first. The paid-for-by line is the advertiser's own filing.

Voting in Austin? 10 local ballot measures → The ballot wording read for rhetorical techniques, and who is paying for and against each.

How to vote in Texas

From Texas's official election office. Each line links to the official page it came from.

Registration	Register by Mon, Oct 5 (30th day before Election Day, moved to the next business day. Mailed applications must be postmarked by the deadline. New registrations are on paper; online is only for updating an existing record.) (passed)Source: votetexas.gov ↗
Early voting in person	Mon, Oct 19 to Fri, Oct 30 (passed)Source: sos.state.tx.us ↗
By mail	Mail voting needs a reason the state accepts (Only these voters qualify: away from the county, sick or disabled, expecting to give birth within 3 weeks of Election Day, 65 or older, or confined in jail or involuntary civil commitment); request a ballot by Fri, Oct 23 (Must be received by this date; a postmark does not count); return it by Tue, Nov 3 (Received by 7 pm on Election Day, or postmarked by 7 pm on Election Day and received by 5 pm on Nov 4) (passed)Source: sos.state.tx.us ↗Source: votetexas.gov ↗
Election Day	Tue, Nov 3. Polls: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. (passed)Source: votetexas.gov ↗
ID at the polls	One of 7 acceptable photo IDs. A voter who cannot reasonably get one may sign a Reasonable Impediment Declaration and show supporting ID instead.Source: votetexas.gov ↗

Check your registration and polling place ↗ Texas's official election site ↗

Checked October 6, 2026. Rules can change; confirm with the official site before you go.

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Money in this race

From FEC filings for 2025–26. Outside spending is money a group spends on its own about a candidate — TV and online ads, mail, canvassing. It is not a donation to the campaign, and the candidate does not control it. Supporting means it was spent to help that candidate win; Opposing means it was spent to defeat them, usually on attack ads. Groups report it within 24 or 48 hours as the election nears. Raised is the campaign's own fundraising, as of its latest quarterly report. Largest donors come from each outside spender's own FEC receipts, with each donor's share of its itemized receipts; donors under $100,000 are not named. People are shown with the employer and occupation they reported. A donor that is itself a political committee is shown with its own largest donors. Companies and nonprofits don't report their funders to the FEC, so the trail ends there, and the page says so.

John Carter (REP, incumbent)

Raised: $1.5M through 2026-10-14 individuals $428K · PACs $565K · from the candidate's other committees $530K · cash on hand $159K
Outside spending: $63K supporting Carter · latest reported 2026-10-14
Largest outside spenders: CONSERVATIVE FUTURE FUND — $55K supporting Carter Largest donors: AMERICA NEXT INC. $375K (32%); GRASSROOTS AMERICA INC $160K (14%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); Saul Fox $100K (8%), Self Employed, Investment Manager NRA VICTORY FUND, INC. — $7,955 supporting Carter TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PAC — $54 supporting Carter

Bundled through PACs: $20K through 2 PACs · FEC bulk data of 2026-11-01 AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE — $15K from 15 gifts Lobbyist/registrant PAC TEXTRON INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE — $5,000 from 2 gifts Lobbyist/registrant PAC

150 PACs gave directly — alphabetical; the legal limit is $5,000 per election

31 DAYS PAC $5,000
ABRAHAM LINCOLN PAC $2,500
ACCENTURE PAC $500
AEROVIRONMENT INC. PAC $1,000
AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOC. INT'L $3,000
AIR METHODS CORPORATION PAC $1,000
AKIN, GUMP, STRAUSS, HEUER & FELD PAC $750
ALL AMERICAN PAC $2,000
ALLIANCE FOR PHARMACY COMPOUNDING PAC (COMP PAC ) $7,500
AMERICA'S ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE PAC $5,000
AMERICAN ACADEMY OF NEUROLOGY $1,000
AMERICAN ACADEMY OF OPHTHALMOLOGY INC, PAC $1,000
AMERICAN BANKERS ASSOCIATION PAC $2,500
AMERICAN COLLEGE OF CARDIOLOGY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $1,000
AMERICAN COUNCIL OF ENGINEERING COMPANIES $2,500
AMERICAN CRYSTAL SUGAR COMPANY PAC $5,000
AMERICAN DENTAL PAC $1,000
AMERICAN INST OF CERTIFIED PUBLIC ACCOUN $10K
AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE PAC $5,000
AMERICAN MARITIME OFFICERS RETIREES ASSN $1,000
AMERICAN MARITIME OFFICERS VOLUNTARY POLITICAL ACTION FUND $1,000
AMERICAN PSYCHIATRIC ASSN. PAC $1,000
AMERICAN REVIVAL PAC $5,000
AMERICAN SOC. OF ANESTHESIOLOGISTS PAC $10K
AMERICANS FOR RESONSIBLE INNOV LTD PAC (ARI PAC) $2,500
AMODEI FOR NEVADA $2,000
ANDY HARRIS FOR CONGRESS $1,500
BAE SYSTEMS USA PAC $10K
BAKER, DONELSON, BEARMAN, CALDWELL & BERKOWITZ $2,500
BE VICTORIOUS OVER DEMOCRATS PAC $5,000
BEEF PAC $1,000
BETH VAN DUYNE FOR CONGRESS $2,000
BIG IDEAS CREATE EXCELLENCE - BICE PAC $2,000
BLUE ORIGIN, LLC $1,000
BNSF RAILWAY COMPANY PAC $5,000
BRETT PAC - LEADERSHIP PAC OF CONGRESSMAN BRETT GUTHRIE $2,500
BUCKEY LIBERT PAC $10K
BUILDING AMERICAN CONSERVATISM PAC $2,500
BUILDING RENEWAL IN AMERICA NOW PAC $2,500
CACI PAC $7,500
CATERPILLAR EMPLOYEES PAC $2,500
CEILING AND VISIBILITY UNLIMITED (CAVU PAC) $1,000
CITIZENS FOR JOHN RUTHERFORD $2,000
CLARK STREET ASSOCIATES LLC PAC $1,500
CONSERVATIVE OPPORTUNITY LEADERSHIP & ENTERPRISE PAC $5,000
CONSERVATIVE PROMISES PAC $1,000
COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS PAC $5,000
CRH AMERICAS, INC PAC $1,500
CULAC THE PAC OF CREDIT UNION NATIONAL ASSOCIATION $1,000
DAVITA INC. PAC (DAPAC) $2,500
DEFENDING AMERICA'S VALUE EVERYWHERE (TEAM DAVE) $5,000
DELL TECHNOLOGIES $5,000
DELOITTE FEDERAL PAC $2,500
DLA PIPER PAC $2,500
ELBIT SYSTEMS OF AMERICA, LLC PAC $1,000
EMMER FOR CONGRESS $2,000
EMPLOYEES OF NORTHROP GRUMMAN PAC $5,000
EMPLOYEES OF RTX CORPORATION PAC $5,000
ERNST & YOUNG PAC $2,500
EUREKA PAC $5,000
EYE OF THE TIGER PAC $5,000
FAA MANAGERS ASSN. PAC $1,000
FARM CREDIT COUNCIL PAC $5,000
FGS GLOBAL (US) LLC PAC $1,000
FIRST IN FREEDOM PAC $5,000
FLUOR CORPORATION PAC $2,500
FOLEY & LARDNER POLITICAL FUND INC. $1,000
FOOD SOLUTIONS ACTION PAC (FSA PAC) $1,000
GARVER USA PAC $500
GENERAL ATOMICS PAC $1,500
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION PAC $10K
GLOBAL AIR LOGISTICS AND TRAINING INC PAC $1,500
GLOBAL MEDICAL RESPONSE, INC PAC $1,000
GOVERN PAC $1,000
GOVEVOLVE PAC $1,000
GRANITE CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYEE PAC $2,500
GREENBERG TRAURIG PAC $2,500
GROWING OUR OWN DYNAMIC ECONOMY NOW PAC $5,000
GUARDING OUR LASTING DEMOCRACY (GOLD) PAC $2,500
HAL ROGERS FOR CONGRESS $2,000
HALFF ASSOCIATES FED PAC $1,000
HANGER INC PAC $1,500
HDR, INC PAC $7,500
HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL PAC $8,000
HOUSE CONSERVATIVES FUND $2,000
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC. PAC $5,000
IN THE ARENA PAC $5,000
INDEPENDENT BANKERS ASSN OF TEXAS FED. $1,500
JAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESS $2,000
JIM JORDAN FOR CONGRESS $4,000
JUSTICE FREEDOM & LIBERTY PAC $2,000
KEEP TEXAS TEXAS PAC $5,000
KRATOS PAC $1,000
L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. PAC $5,500
LASTING INVESTMENTS STRENTHING AMERICA PAC $2,500
LEONARDO DRS PAC $10K
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP. EMPLOYEES PAC $10K
MAINTAINING ALL REPUBLICANS IN OFFICE PAC $2,500
MISSOURI TRUTH PAC $2,000
MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS, INC. PAC $5,000
MR. SOUTHERN MISSOURIAN IN THE HOUSE PAC $5,000
NATHANIEL MORAN FOR CONGRESS $2,000
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS $5,000
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS PAC $5,000
NATIONAL AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION PAC $5,000
NATIONAL BEER WHOLESALERS ASSN PAC $2,500
NATIONAL BUSINESS AVIATION ASSOCIATION INC POLITICAL ACTION $1,000
NATIONAL PRO-LIFE ALLIANCE PAC $500
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOC. OF AMERICA $1,000
NATIONAL SHOOTING SPORTS FOUNDATION PAC $5,000
NATIONAL STONE SAND & GRAVEL ASSOCIATION $5,000
NATURAL PRODUCTS ASSOCIATION PAC $2,500
NOOGA PAC $1,000
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION (OXYPAC $3,000
ORACLE AMERICA, INC. PAC $7,500
PERATON CORP PAC $1,000
POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE AMERICAN ASSOC. OF ORTHOPA $1,000
PROFESSIONAL COMPOUNDING CENTERS OF AMERICA PAC $1,500
RAPTOR PAC $5,000
RAZOR PAC $2,500
REGIONS FINANCIAL CORPORATION PAC $1,000
REPUBLICAN UNITED TO DEFEND YOU PAC $5,000
ROBOTIC RESEARCH OPCO LLC- FORTERRA POLITICAL ACTION COMMITT $3,500
ROGER WILLIAMS FOR US CONGRESS $1,000
ROLLS ROYCE NORTH AMERICA HOLLDING INC. PAC $1,000
RUDY FOR INDIANA $2,000
RVFPAC $2,000
SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS AMERICA INC POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $6,500
SCALISE FOR CONGRESS $2,000
SEAL PAC SUPPORT ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC $2,500
SECURING THE REPUBLIC FOR OUR NEXT GENERATION $1,000
SIERRA NEVADA PAC $2,500
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO FREEDOM FUND $2,000
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP PAC $15K
STARKEY LABORATORIES INC. PAC $1,500
TEXANS FOR JODEY ARRINGTON $2,000
TEXAS ASSOCIATION FOR HOME CARE, INC. $500
TEXAS FARM BUREAU AGFUND, INC. $4,811
TEXTRON INC. PAC $2,500
THALES USA PAC $1,500
THE BOEING PAC $7,500
THE HOME DEPOT INC. PAC $5,000
TOGETHER UNITED FOR LIBERTY, INTEGRITY AND PROSPERITY PAC $2,000
TROUTMAN PEPPER HAMILTON SANDERS LLP PAC INC. $1,000
ULTRA ELECTRONICS USA GROUP, INC. PAC $5,000
VIASAT INC PAC $1,250
VITA INCLINATA TECHNOLOGIES, INC. PAC $2,000
VITORIA PAC $5,000
WALBERG FOR CONGRESS $1,000
WEBER FOR CONGRESS $2,000

All filings at the FEC ↗

Justin Early (DEM)

Raised: $292K through 2026-10-14 individuals $238K · PACs $10K · candidate's own money, incl. loans $43K · cash on hand $21K
Outside spending: $8,507 supporting Early · latest reported 2026-06-15
Largest outside spenders: INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC. — $8,507 supporting Early

Bundled through PACs: none reported · FEC bulk data of 2026-11-01

8 PACs gave directly — alphabetical; the legal limit is $5,000 per election

BLACK AUSTIN AREA DEMOCRATS $250
COMMUNICATIONS WORKERS OF AMERICA - COPE POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEE $500
CORYELL COUNTY DEMOCRATIC CLUB $1,000
HIGHLAND LAKES DEMOCRATIC WOMEN $1,000
INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $3,500
MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MACHINISTS & AEROSPACE WORKERS $3,500
THE CENTER FOR FREETHOUGHT EQUALITY PAC $250
WESTERN WILCO DEMS CLUB $100

All filings at the FEC ↗

Greg Stoker (GRE)

Raised: $89K through 2026-10-14 individuals $88K · PACs $0 · cash on hand $9,151
Outside spending: none reported

Bundled through PACs: none reported · FEC bulk data of 2026-11-01

All filings at the FEC ↗

No campaign ads analyzed for this race yet.

What this page is

An ad is on this page because its own "Paid for by" line is a campaign in this race; or it comes from a national Senate group and ran mostly in TX; or it ran mostly in TX and names a candidate — unless its sponsor is a campaign for some other office. Ads from outside groups appear alongside the campaigns' own.
Campaigns run one text as many separate ads. Identical text from the same sponsor is one card here, marked with its number of variants.
A technique is a specific rhetorical move in the wording, found by our model and explained in one line. It is not a claim that the ad is false.
Claims are checked when a reader asks: press "Check this ad's claims" on a card. Running a check and seeing its verdicts are part of Semblen Pro, because each check costs money to run; anyone can see which claims an ad makes. The ten ads with the most money behind them in each race are checked ahead of time.
Claim verdicts say what the cited sources say. A verdict that an ad is wrong or misleading is shown only when it cites an established fact-checker or an institutional record — Congress, a federal agency, a court — and its confidence is not low; a weaker one is not shown at all. Each verdict shows what it rests on and how confident it is. If we got one wrong, press Disagree: a verdict that readers dispute and no one defends comes down.
Video ads come from the campaigns' own YouTube channels; the transcript is analyzed. Meta ads are analyzed on their text; their video and images are not, yet.