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25 ads analyzed · 7 use a rhetorical technique, most often appeal to fear and glittering generalities.
The words doing the persuading
From the Dunlap side · Paid for by NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION“Lives are on the line in this election. That’s why Maine’s nurses back Matt Dunlap for Congress.
As governor, Paul LePage cut…”Appeal to FearSee this ad →
From the LePage side · Paid for by America PAC“Paul LePage will stop the spread of socialism, but you MUST get out and vote. Not sure how? Download the America Pass to get helpful voting tips and…”Appeal to FearSee this ad →
Matthew Dunlap (Democrat) and Paul LePage (Republican) are the nominees for Maine's 2nd congressional district in the November 3, 2026 general election. By their latest FEC reports, Matthew Dunlap's campaign had raised $3.0 million (through October 14, 2026) and Paul LePage's campaign $3.3 million (through October 14, 2026). Outside groups have reported $1.7 million for Matthew Dunlap and $8.4 million against; $609,000 for Paul LePage and $9.0 million against. Semblen has analyzed 25 ads in this race; 7 used at least one rhetorical technique, most often appeal to fear and glittering generalities.
Matthew Dunlap (DEM), Paul LePage (REP).
2 others filed with the FEC; any ads they ran are below. 25 ads analyzed, 7 with at least one technique in the copy.
Newest first. The paid-for-by line is the advertiser's own filing. Updated 2026-10-24. 2 ads from other advertisers shown separately below.
From Maine's official election office. Each line links to the official page it came from.
Registration
Register by Tue, Oct 13 (mail/3rd party: received by close of business Oct 13; online: 5 PM Oct 13; BMV: Oct 27; in person: through close of polls on Election Day). Same-day registration: in person at the town office through close of polls; ID and proof of residence required (passed)Source: maine.gov ↗
Early voting in person
Sun, Oct 4 to Thu, Oct 29 (in-person no-excuse absentee voting at town/city halls; begins 30 days before Election Day) (passed)Source: maine.gov ↗Source: maine.gov ↗
By mail
Anyone can vote by mail; request a ballot by Thu, Oct 29 (must be received 3 business days before Election Day unless special circumstances); return it by Tue, Nov 3 (received by the municipality by 8 p.m. Election Day; postmark does not count) (passed)Source: maine.gov ↗Source: maine.gov ↗
Election Day
Tue, Nov 3. Polls: opens 6-10 a.m. (varies by town); closes 8 p.m. (passed)Source: maine.gov ↗
ID at the polls
No ID required for registered voters; same-day registrants must show ID and proof of residenceSource: maine.gov ↗
Checked October 6, 2026. Rules can change; confirm with the official site before you go.
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A person reads every report and fixes errors the same day.
Got a political text?
Paste a campaign text message you’ve received. Semblen marks the persuasion techniques in its wording and lists the factual claims it makes. Take your name out first: what you paste is analyzed and kept like any text.
Findings
As of 2026-10-24. Counts are of distinct ads; the same text run many times is one ad.
Ads analyzed
25 · started running between 2026-08-10 and 2026-10-21
$11,600–19,433 on all ads, $8,300–11,579 on flagged ads · Meta reports ranges; these are the sums of their ends
Example
“Lives are on the line in this election.” — Appeal to Fear, paid for by NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION
· the flagged ad with the highest reported spend that shows the most common technique
A small box with these findings and the newest ads, updated as new ads are analyzed. Free for newsrooms, blogs and campaigns alike; it links back here.
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Appeal to Fear (1), Glittering Generalities (1), Loaded Language (1)
LePage (R)
6
3 of 6
Appeal to Fear (2), Name Calling (2), Black-and-White Fallacy (1)
LePage's campaign
4
1 of 4
Glittering Generalities (1)
1 group backing LePage
2
2 of 2
Appeal to Fear (2), Name Calling (2), Black-and-White Fallacy (1)
Not placed on a side (2 sponsors)
4
0 of 4
Read this before comparing the sides. Ads that attack an opponent use these techniques far more often than ads that introduce a candidate, whoever runs them, so the side running more attack ads shows a higher share. A technique is about wording, not about whether an ad is true. These are online ads only (Meta and YouTube), not television.
How a group is placed: by its own filings with the Federal Election Commission. A group is with a candidate when it reported spending to support that candidate, or to oppose the other one in the general election. The parties' own committees are with their nominee. Spending against a candidate in a primary places a group nowhere, and neither does our reading of its ads: a group with no such filing is listed as not placed. The sponsor table gives the reason for each.
Decide what counts
Not everyone would call every technique a problem. Untick the ones you'd call ordinary persuasion and the count updates.
28% of the 25 ads here use at least one of the techniques ticked below (7 ads).
Leaving out the softer ones (loaded language, glittering generalities, slogans, exaggeration, repetition): 20% of ads.
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Money in this race
From FEC filings for 2025–26. Outside spending is money a group spends on its own about a candidate — TV and online ads, mail, canvassing. It is not a donation to the campaign, and the candidate does not control it. Supporting means it was spent to help that candidate win; Opposing means it was spent to defeat them, usually on attack ads. Groups report it within 24 or 48 hours as the election nears. Raised is the campaign's own fundraising, as of its latest quarterly report. Largest donors come from each outside spender's own FEC receipts, with each donor's share of its itemized receipts; donors under $100,000 are not named. People are shown with the employer and occupation they reported. A donor that is itself a political committee is shown with its own largest donors. Companies and nonprofits don't report their funders to the FEC, so the trail ends there, and the page says so.
Matthew Dunlap (DEM)
Raised
$3.0M through 2026-10-14individuals $2.7M · PACs $212K · party $339 · candidate's own money, incl. loans $10K · from the candidate's other committees $10K · cash on hand $444K
SAFETY & AFFORDABILITY PAC INC.— $5.3M opposing DunlapCLF— $2.2M opposing DunlapLargest donors:
AMERICAN ACTION NETWORK $64.3M (25%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); Elon Musk $30.0M (12%), Space Exploration Technologies Corp., CEO; Timothy Mellon $21.0M (8%), Self-Employed, Investments; Miriam Adelson $10.0M (4%), Adelson Drug Clinic, Physician; Paul E Singer $8.0M (3%), EMC, PresidentCFFE PAC— $1.0M supporting DunlapLargest donors:
PIVOTAL VENTURES $2.0M (56%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); OPPORTUNITY ACTION FUND $750K (21%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); GOVERNMENT THAT WORKS PAC $250K (7%); GREEN ADVOCACY PROJECT $250K (7%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); CHILDREN'S EQUITY FUND $100K (3%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC)NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION— $436K supporting Dunlap
· 6 ads on this pageLargest donors:
NATIONAL NURSES UNITED $2.5M (100%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC)NO GOING BACK PAC INC.— $302K opposing Dunlapand 14 more
Bundled through PACs
$12K through 1 PAC · FEC bulk data of 2026-11-01ZINC COLLECTIVE PAC— $12K from 5 gifts
5 PACs gave directly — alphabetical; the legal limit is $5,000 per election
HMP— $9.0M opposing LePageLargest donors:
HOUSE MAJORITY FORWARD $93.7M (39%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); Reid G Hoffman $8.5M (4%), Greylock Partners, Partner; ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY FUND $5.0M (2%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); Fred Eychaner $5.0M (2%), Retired; UNITED ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ISSUES FUND $4.8M (2%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC)NO GOING BACK PAC INC.— $258K supporting LePageAMERICA PAC— $168K supporting LePage
· 2 ads on this pageLargest donors:
Elon Musk $50.3M (100%), Space Exploration Technologies Corp., CEOPOVERTY TO PROSPERITY— $100K supporting LePageTHE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY— $67K supporting LePageand 5 more
Bundled through PACs
none reported · FEC bulk data of 2026-11-01
91 PACs gave directly — alphabetical; the legal limit is $5,000 per election
31 DAYS PAC $5,000
ABRAHAM LINCOLN PAC $2,500
ALASKANS FOR NICK BEGICH $1,000
AMERICA'S FIRST PAC $2,500
AMERICAN DREAM DELIVERED $5,000
AMERICAN REVIVAL PAC $5,000
ANDY HARRIS FOR CONGRESS $4,000
ANTI-WOKE FUND $10K
ASSOCIATED GENERAL CONTRACTORS OF AMERICA PAC $2,500
Paid for by NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTIONfrom 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-202 variantsspend $0–1986,000–7,998 impressions
Billionaires get a tax break. Rural Maine’s hospitals get the cuts.
That’s the Washington plan Paul LePage is backing: one of the biggest tax cuts in history, paid for by cutting the Medicaid funding rural clinics and hospitals depend on.
He called the Medicare and Social Security you paid into “welfare, pure and simple.” The real handout goes to billionaires.
Paul LePage can’t be trusted with your health care. Vote Matt Dunlap by Nov. 3.
Loaded Language: The charged phrase 'The real handout goes to billionaires' frames the issue emotionally rather than factually.
Scapegoating: It blames a class group, billionaires, for receiving the benefits in a sweeping, membership-based claim without citing specific actions or policies. Flagged: “The real handout goes to billionaires”.
Paid for by NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTIONfrom 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-202 variantsspend $0–19811,000–16,998 impressions
Paul LePage backs Washington’s Medicaid cuts that put rural Maine’s clinics and hospitals at risk.
It’s nothing new. As governor, he cut health coverage, vetoed Medicaid expansion five times, and called Medicare and Social Security “welfare, pure and simple.”
Paul LePage can’t be trusted with Maine’s future. Vote Matt Dunlap Nov 3.
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Paid for by NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTIONfrom 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-202 variantsspend $100–29820,000–25,998 impressions
Paul LePage vetoed Medicaid expansion five times.
As governor, he cut health coverage for Mainers, and called Medicare and Social Security “welfare, pure and simple.”
Now he’s backing Washington’s Medicaid cuts that put our rural clinics and hospitals at risk.
Paul LePage can’t be trusted with your health care. Vote Matt Dunlap Nov 3.
Paid for by MAINE PEOPLE'S ALLIANCE INCfrom 2026-10-163 variantsspend $100–3975,100–7,997 impressions
As Paul LePage campaigns for Congress, Maine patients and providers are pointing to his record as governor, when he repeatedly refused to expand Medicaid, cut MaineCare eligibility and reduced programs that helped older and disabled Mainers afford medications.
no techniques found
Looks up the ad's factual claims in fact-checkers, primary sources and wire reporting. Takes up to a minute.
Paid for by MAINE PEOPLE'S ALLIANCE INCfrom 2026-10-153 variantsspend $0–2974,000–6,997 impressions
Paul LePage is blaming Medicaid expansion for financial struggles at rural hospitals as he campaigns for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, despite evidence and health care professionals who say the program has helped rural hospitals and expanded access to care. LePage repeatedly fought Medicaid expansion as governor and later backed federal legislation that cut Medicaid funding.
no techniques found
Looks up the ad's factual claims in fact-checkers, primary sources and wire reporting. Takes up to a minute.
Paid for by Working Americafrom 2026-10-092 variantsspend $0–1981,100–2,998 impressions
In 2016, as overdose deaths in Maine jumped 38%, Gov. Paul LePage vetoed a bill to expand access to naloxone, the overdose antidote. He also let a 2015 naloxone law sit for years without the rules it needed.
no techniques found
Looks up the ad's factual claims in fact-checkers, primary sources and wire reporting. Takes up to a minute.
Paid posts that ran in ME and name a candidate, from advertisers that aren't part of this race: news-style pages, campaigns for other offices, and others. They're shown here for completeness and not counted with the ads above. We show the same technique analysis; their claims are not checked.
The American Independent Foundation: news-style page
Paid for by The American Independent Foundationfrom 2026-09-254 variantsspend $5,300–6,496420,000–494,996 impressions
LePage vetoed Medicaid expansion, higher wages
Paul LePage vetoed Medicaid expansion and higher wages as Maine governor
Paid for by Portland Postfrom 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-072 variantsspend $0–1982,000–3,998 impressions
🚨 Maine State Auditor Matt Dunlap is facing scrutiny after saying his office "doesn't provide oversight" and is "not an enforcement agency," drawing sharp criticism from Republicans over accountability for state spending.
Dunlap, a Democrat running against former Gov. Paul LePage in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, made the remarks in response to Republican attacks linking him to alleged Medicaid fraud. His most recent state audit found 74 deficiencies across state and federally funded programs, including concerns that the Department of Health and Human Services may be failing to properly oversee MaineCare billing. The audit's report noted that the DHHS Program Integrity Unit could not produce documentation showing how it selects providers to investigate for possible fraud.
That audit comes as Portland nonprofit Gateway Community Services remains under investigation for potentially defrauding MaineCare through overinflated and underdocumented interpreter service claims. DHHS paused MaineCare payments to Gateway in December after reviewing 15,000 claims filed between March 2021 and December 2022. Separately, the Trump administration gave Maine roughly two months to fix deficiencies in its anti-Medicaid fraud unit or risk losing federal certification, per a July 2 letter from HHS Inspector General T. March Bell to Maine Attorney General Aaron Frey.
Dunlap says his office refers any fraud findings to the U.S. Attorney General's Office or the Office of Special Counsel, and that the audit deficiencies do not themselves indicate fraud. Critics, including the NRCC, argue his office should have flagged Gateway as part of its DHHS audit. The Office of the State Auditor's own mission statement says it exists to provide "independent assurance that Maine government is accountable to the people."
Do you think a state auditor's office has a responsibility to go beyond identifying problems and push for enforcement? 👇
#MainePolitics #MattDunlap #MaineCare #MedicaidFraud #ME02 #Breaking
An ad is on this page because its own "Paid for by" line is a campaign in this race; or it comes from a national Senate group and ran mostly in ME; or it ran mostly in ME and names a candidate — unless its sponsor is a campaign for some other office. Ads from outside groups appear alongside the campaigns' own.
Campaigns run one text as many separate ads. Identical text from the same sponsor is one card here, marked with its number of variants.
A technique is a specific rhetorical move in the wording, found by our model and explained in one line. It is not a claim that the ad is false.
Claims are checked when a reader asks: press "Check this ad's claims" on a card. Running a check and seeing its verdicts are part of Semblen Pro, because each check costs money to run; anyone can see which claims an ad makes. The ten ads with the most money behind them in each race are checked ahead of time.
Claim verdicts say what the cited sources say. A verdict that an ad is wrong or misleading is shown only when it cites an established fact-checker or an institutional record — Congress, a federal agency, a court — and its confidence is not low; a weaker one is not shown at all. Each verdict shows what it rests on and how confident it is. If we got one wrong, press Disagree: a verdict that readers dispute and no one defends comes down.
Video ads come from the campaigns' own YouTube channels; the transcript is analyzed. Meta ads are analyzed on their text; their video and images are not, yet.