New York House District 22 2026: the ads, and who's paying for them
John Mannion won · 58.3% to 41.6%, with an estimated 94% of the vote counted · Called by AP on Nov 3
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7 ads analyzed · 3 use a rhetorical technique, most often loaded language and appeal to fear.
The words doing the persuading
Paid for by MANNION FOR NEW YORK“…a former teacher, I don’t want my students to grow up in a country where the government serves the billionaire class over its people.
That’s why my race is so important to win.
I’m running for reelection in a critical…”Loaded LanguageSee this ad →
Kailee Buller (Republican) and John Mannion (Democrat) are the nominees for New York's 22nd congressional district in the November 3, 2026 general election. John Mannion is the incumbent. By their latest FEC reports, Kailee Buller's campaign had raised $465,000 (through October 14, 2026) and John Mannion's campaign $3.2 million (through October 14, 2026). Outside groups have reported $2,000 for John Mannion and $0 against. Semblen has analyzed 7 ads in this race; 3 used at least one rhetorical technique, most often loaded language and name calling.
Kailee Buller (REP), John Mannion (DEM, incumbent).
3 others filed with the FEC; any ads they ran are below. 7 ads analyzed, 3 with at least one technique in the copy.
Newest first. The paid-for-by line is the advertiser's own filing. Updated 2026-10-23.
Anyone can vote by mail; request a ballot by Sat, Oct 24 (Received by county board, 10 days before; in-person application until Nov 2.); return it by Tue, Nov 3 (Postmarked by Nov 3 and received by Nov 10; or delivered to county board by 9 p.m. Nov 3.) (passed)Source: elections.ny.gov ↗
Checked October 8, 2026. Rules can change; confirm with the official site before you go.
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Findings
As of 2026-10-23. Counts are of distinct ads; the same text run many times is one ad.
Ads analyzed
7 · started running between 2026-07-27 and 2026-10-20
$4,500–7,874 on all ads, $500–2,084 on flagged ads · Meta reports ranges; these are the sums of their ends
Example
“serves the billionaire class over its people” — Loaded Language, paid for by MANNION FOR NEW YORK
· the flagged ad with the highest reported spend that shows the most common technique
A small box with these findings and the newest ads, updated as new ads are analyzed. Free for newsrooms, blogs and campaigns alike; it links back here.
Follow John Mannion in office
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Money in this race
From FEC filings for 2025–26. Outside spending is money a group spends on its own about a candidate — TV and online ads, mail, canvassing. It is not a donation to the campaign, and the candidate does not control it. Supporting means it was spent to help that candidate win; Opposing means it was spent to defeat them, usually on attack ads. Groups report it within 24 or 48 hours as the election nears. Raised is the campaign's own fundraising, as of its latest quarterly report. Largest donors come from each outside spender's own FEC receipts, with each donor's share of its itemized receipts; donors under $100,000 are not named. People are shown with the employer and occupation they reported. A donor that is itself a political committee is shown with its own largest donors. Companies and nonprofits don't report their funders to the FEC, so the trail ends there, and the page says so.
Kailee Buller (REP)
Raised
$465K through 2026-10-14individuals $389K · PACs $49K · party $4,500 · candidate's own money, incl. loans $22K · cash on hand $160K
Outside spending
none reported
Bundled through PACs
none reported · FEC bulk data of 2026-11-01
21 PACs gave directly — alphabetical; the legal limit is $5,000 per election
AUSTIN SCOTT FOR CONGRESS INC $2,000
BAKEPAC - THE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE INDEPENDENT BAKERS ASSOCIATION $500
BLUESTEM BIOSCIENCES INC PAC $1,000
CAYUGA COUNTY CONSERVATIVE PARTY $250
CHS INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $3,500
CIRCLE THE WAGONS PAC $2,000
CITIZENS FOR DEFRANCISCO $1,000
COMMITTEE TO ELECT ANTONACCI FOR DA $50
COMMITTEE TO ELECT SUE DWYER CO CLERK $100
COMMITTEE TO ELECT SUE DWYER CO. CLERK $200
COUNCIL OF PRODUCERS AND DISTRIBUTORS OF AGROTECHNOLOGY PAC (CPDA-PAC) $1,000
FERT PAC (THE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE FERTILIZER INSTITUTE) $1,000
GROWTH ENERGY PAC $1,000
MVL PAC $2,500
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF CONVENIENCE STORES POLITICAL ACTION $5,000
NATIONAL GROCERS ASSOCIATION GROCERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMIT $2,500
NEW YORK STATE COMMITTEE OF THE WORKING FAMILIES PARTY— $875 supporting MannionWORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC— $870 supporting MannionLargest donors:
DEMOCRACY PAC $6.5M (32%); MOVEMENT VOTER PAC $2.2M (11%); ACCOUNTABLE JUSTICE ACTION FUND $2.0M (10%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); Patty Ann Quillin $650K (3%), NOT Employed, NOT Employed; JORDAN/DELANEY FAMILY TRUST $450K (2%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC)PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES— $31 supporting MannionLargest donors:
Deborah Simon $3.0M (39%), Retired, Retired; Mary Quinn Delaney $1.5M (19%), Retired; Denise Sobel $1.2M (16%), Retired; PLANNED PARENTHOOD ACTION FUND, INC. $500K (6%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); Eileen Laspa $400K (5%), RetiredSIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION— $10 supporting Mannion
MORTGAGE BANKERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (MORPAC) $1,000
NABIP PAC $1,000
NANCY PELOSI FOR CONGRESS $2,000
NATIONAL ACTIVE AND RETIRED FEDERAL EMPLOYEES ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COM (NARFE-PAC) $3,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSOCIATION PAC $6,000
NATIONAL APARTMENT ASSOCIATION PAC $1,000
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL ADVISORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $5,000
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $4,000
NATIONAL BEER WHOLESALERS ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $2,500
NATIONAL CATTLEMEN'S BEEF ASSOCIATION PAC $1,000
NATIONAL CONFECTIONERS ASSOCIATION OF THE UNITED STATES, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $1,000
NATIONAL COTTON COUNCIL OF AMERICA COMMITTEE FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF COTTON $5,000
NATIONAL ELEVATOR CONSTRUCTORS PAC/ INTN'L UNION OF ELEVATOR CONSTRUCTORS (NEC PAC) $7,500
NATIONAL GRID USA PAC $2,000
NATIONAL MILK PRODUCERS FEDERATION PAC (NMPF PAC) $1,500
NATIONAL TREASURY EMPLOYEES UNION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $3,000
NEA FUND FOR CHILDREN AND PUBLIC EDUCATION $5,000
NEW DEMOCRAT COALITION ACTION FUND $7,500
NEW YORK LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $7,500
NIKE INC FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $1,000
NIKKI FOR CONGRESS $1,000
NMHC PAC $2,500
NO LABELS PAC $1,000
NOMI HEALTH, INC PAC $1,000
NRDC ACTION FUND INC PAC $1,000
NUCOR CORPORATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $7,500
O PAC $1,000
PAC FOR GOOD $1,000
PAC OF APPLES $1,000
PAC TO THE FUTURE $10K
PATRIOT PAC $3,500
PEOPLE IN RURAL AREAS TRANSFORM ELECTIONS (PIRATE) PAC $2,000
PETE AGUILAR FOR CONGRESS $4,000
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ACTION FUND INC PAC, DBA PLANNED PARENTHOOD FEDERAL PAC $2,000
POET PAC $5,000
POPULAR HOPE & RENEWAL PAC $250
PRINCIPAL LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $2,000
PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT $5,000
PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL INC FEDERAL PAC $2,000
PUGET PAC $6,500
RAIN AND HAIL INSURANCE SOCIETY PAC $1,000
RAUL HUERTA FOR TOWN SUPERVISOR $500
READY TO FIGHT PAC $500
REBUILD AMERICA PAC $3,000
REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM FOR ALL PAC $2,500
ROBERT GARCIA FOR CONGRESS $1,000
SAAB, INC. EMPLOYEES POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (SAAB PAC) $5,000
SALT RIVER VALLEY WATER USERS' ASSOCIATION POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT COMMITTEE ( SRPPIC) $1,000
SCHAKOWSKY FOR CONGRESS $2,000
SCHNEIDER FOR CONGRESS $2,000
SEAFARERS POLITICAL ACTIVITY DONATION - SEAFARERS INTERNATIONAL UNION OF NA-AGLIW $1,658
SECURITIES INDUSTRY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS ASSOCIATION PAC $1,000
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) $5,000
SERVING OUR COUNTRY PAC $1,000
SHARICE FOR CONGRESS $2,000
SHEET METAL & AIR CONDITIONING CONTRACTORS' NATIONAL ASSOC., INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $6,000
SHORE PAC $2,000
SIDECAR HEALTH INC. PAC $1,000
SILICORN VALLEY PAC $4,000
SPIKE PAC $2,000
STANTON FOR CONGRESS $2,500
STATE FARM FEDERAL PAC $100
STIRPE FOR ASSEMBLY $200
STOP PROJECT 2025 $10K
SUGAR CANE GROWERS COOPERATIVE OF FLORIDA (PAC) $500
SUMMITT PAC $4,500
SUNSHINE ORGANIZATION FOR TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITIES PAC $1,500
SUPPORTING HOUSE PROBLEM SOLVERS - SHP PAC $2,000
TAKE BACK THE HOUSE PAC $1,000
TEACHERS INSURANCE ANNUITY ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA PAC $10K
TED LIEU FOR CONGRESS $2,000
THE CIGNA GROUP EMPLOYEE PAC $2,000
THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $7,500
THE FARM CREDIT COUNCIL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $3,500
THE HOME DEPOT INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $2,500
TOMORROW PAC $1,000
TRANSAMERICA CORPORATION PAC $2,500
TRANSPORT WORKERS UNION OF AMERICA POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMMITTEE $7,500
TRIED-AND-TRUE PAC $2,500
TROY CARTER FOR CONGRESS $1,000
TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $10K
UA UNION PLUMBERS & PIPEFITTERS VOTE! PAC (UNITED ASSOCIATION OF JOURNEYMEN AND APPRENTICES OF THE PLUMBING & PIPEFITTING INDUSTRY OF THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA) $5,000
UAW - V - CAP (UAW VOLUNTARY COMMUNITY ACTION PROGRAM) 'INT'L UNION UNITED AUTOMOBILE AEROSPACE & AGRICULTURAL IMPLEMENT WORKERS OF AMERICA UAW $2,500
UNITED FOOD AND COMMERCIAL WORKERS INTERNATIONAL UNION ACTIVE BALLOT CLUB $5,000
UNITED MINE WORKERS OF AMERICA - COAL MINERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $2,000
UNITED STEELWORKERS POLITICAL ACTION FUND $5,000
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED PAC (UNITEDHEALTH GROUP PAC) $2,000
US APPLE ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $1,000
WALMART INC. PAC FOR RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENT $5,000
WESTERN SUGAR COOPERATIVE PAC $1,000
WIN THE FUTURE PAC $1,500
WIN THE HOUSE NOW PAC $1,000
WINE AND SPIRITS WHOLESALERS OF AMERICA, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $1,000
YINZER PAC $1,000
ZURICH HOLDING CO OF AMERICA COMMITTEE FOR GOOD GOVERNMENT $2,500
Paid for by INTERNATIONAL UNION, UNITED AUTOMOBILE, AEROSPACE AND AGRICULTURAL IMPLEMENT WORKERS OF AMfrom 2026-10-13spend $0–991,000–1,999 impressions
UAW members, like you, screen candidates for the 2026 election so you can make an informed decision on or before November 3rd.
John Mannion got the UAW stamp of approval for Congress because they will fight for higher wages, affordable healthcare, job security, and a dignified retirement.
Glittering Generalities: Stacks vague, positive-sounding promises without specifics or evidence of how they would be delivered. Flagged: “higher wages, affordable healthcare, job security, and a dignified retirement”.
John Mannion won. Get what John Mannion says in office by email, analyzed for rhetorical techniques, once sworn in. And an email if the result changes: a recount or a call reversed. One-click unsubscribe.
Confirming also makes your free Semblen account, with a 14-day Pro trial. No card.
Paid for by MANNION FOR NEW YORKfrom 2026-09-24 to 2026-09-2814 variantsspend $100–1,4865,800–18,086 impressions
Here’s how we stop Project 2025:
It’s Congressman John Mannion, and Donald Trump has implemented over 50% of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 Agenda, completely transforming the country we know and love.
As a former teacher, I don’t want my students to grow up in a country where the government serves the billionaire class over its people.
That’s why my race is so important to win.
I’m running for reelection in a critical swing seat that Republicans are pouring millions of dollars into to take it back. That’s where you can help.
Can you chip in whatever you can to protect this district and elect a government that the people trust and deserve?
Appeal to Fear: Implies a threatening, sweeping transformation of the beloved country to provoke anxiety about Trump's agenda. Flagged: “completely transforming the country we know and love”.
Exaggeration/Hyperbole: Overstates the extent of change with the absolute 'completely transforming' beyond what the cited statistic supports.
Loaded Language: The phrase 'serves the billionaire class over its people' uses emotionally charged framing to cast the government as betraying ordinary citizens.
Paid for by MANNION FOR NEW YORKfrom 2026-09-15spend $2,500–2,999250,000–299,999 impressions
John Mannion is fighting to reverse Donald Trump’s health care cuts, bring down the cost of prescription drugs, and ban insurance companies from denying care.
no techniques found
Claims checked
Checked with an earlier version of the checker.
No checkable factual claims in this ad: it's opinion and slogans, nothing a source could confirm or refute.
Paid for by Skinner for Supreme Courtfrom 2026-08-06 to 2026-08-10spend $0–99100–999 impressions
That's right. Hon. John Mannion has stood with Matt from the beginning of his campaign. Matt's been campaigning since January. Support Matt's hard work and John's faith in his candidacy and vote for Matt at the 5th JD Supreme Court Nominting Convention. #skinnerforsupremecourt
An ad is on this page because its own "Paid for by" line is a campaign in this race; or it comes from a national Senate group and ran mostly in NY; or it ran mostly in NY and names a candidate — unless its sponsor is a campaign for some other office. Ads from outside groups appear alongside the campaigns' own.
Campaigns run one text as many separate ads. Identical text from the same sponsor is one card here, marked with its number of variants.
A technique is a specific rhetorical move in the wording, found by our model and explained in one line. It is not a claim that the ad is false.
Claims are checked when a reader asks: press "Check this ad's claims" on a card. Running a check and seeing its verdicts are part of Semblen Pro, because each check costs money to run; anyone can see which claims an ad makes. The ten ads with the most money behind them in each race are checked ahead of time.
Claim verdicts say what the cited sources say. A verdict that an ad is wrong or misleading is shown only when it cites an established fact-checker or an institutional record — Congress, a federal agency, a court — and its confidence is not low; a weaker one is not shown at all. Each verdict shows what it rests on and how confident it is. If we got one wrong, press Disagree: a verdict that readers dispute and no one defends comes down.
Video ads come from the campaigns' own YouTube channels; the transcript is analyzed. Meta ads are analyzed on their text; their video and images are not, yet.