Get the result by email the day it’s called, then what the winner says in office, analyzed. And an email if it changes: a recount, a runoff, a call reversed. One-click unsubscribe.
Confirming also makes your free Semblen account, with a 14-day Pro trial. No card.
24 ads analyzed · 7 use a rhetorical technique, most often glittering generalities and appeal to fear.
The words doing the persuading
Paid for by VOTE BAUMGARTNER FOR CONGRESS“Social Security and Medicare are NOT getting cut. These programs are sacred promises made to our seniors, and I will always defend them.
Vote Michael Baumgartner for Congress!”Glittering GeneralitiesSee this ad →
Carmela Conroy (Democrat) and Michael Baumgartner (Republican) are the nominees for Washington's 5th congressional district in the November 3, 2026 general election. Michael Baumgartner is the incumbent. By their latest FEC reports, Carmela Conroy's campaign had raised $840,000 (through October 14, 2026) and Michael Baumgartner's campaign $2.2 million (through October 14, 2026). Outside groups have reported $0 for Carmela Conroy and $123,000 against; $37,000 for Michael Baumgartner and $663,000 against. Semblen has analyzed 24 ads in this race; 7 used at least one rhetorical technique, most often glittering generalities and appeal to fear.
Carmela Conroy (DEM), Michael Baumgartner (REP, incumbent).
8 others filed with the FEC; any ads they ran are below. 24 ads analyzed, 7 with at least one technique in the copy.
Newest first. The paid-for-by line is the advertiser's own filing. Updated 2026-10-28.
Also on every Washington ballot: 3 statewide ballot measures →The ballot wording and the official arguments, read for rhetorical techniques.
Got a political text?
Paste a campaign text message you’ve received. Semblen marks the persuasion techniques in its wording and lists the factual claims it makes. Take your name out first: what you paste is analyzed and kept like any text.
Findings
As of 2026-10-28. Counts are of distinct ads; the same text run many times is one ad.
Ads analyzed
24 · started running between 2026-07-10 and 2026-10-25
A small box with these findings and the newest ads, updated as new ads are analyzed. Free for newsrooms, blogs and campaigns alike; it links back here.
Follow this race
Get the result by email the day it’s called, then what the winner says in office, analyzed. And an email if it changes: a recount, a runoff, a call reversed. One-click unsubscribe.
Confirming also makes your free Semblen account, with a 14-day Pro trial. No card.
Leaving out the softer ones (loaded language, glittering generalities, slogans, exaggeration, repetition): 21% of ads.
Semblen is free to read and has no ads. If this page was useful, you can support it.
Money in this race
From FEC filings for 2025–26. Outside spending is money a group spends on its own about a candidate — TV and online ads, mail, canvassing. It is not a donation to the campaign, and the candidate does not control it. Supporting means it was spent to help that candidate win; Opposing means it was spent to defeat them, usually on attack ads. Groups report it within 24 or 48 hours as the election nears. Raised is the campaign's own fundraising, as of its latest quarterly report. Largest donors come from each outside spender's own FEC receipts, with each donor's share of its itemized receipts; donors under $100,000 are not named. People are shown with the employer and occupation they reported. A donor that is itself a political committee is shown with its own largest donors. Companies and nonprofits don't report their funders to the FEC, so the trail ends there, and the page says so.
Carmela Conroy (DEM)
Raised
$840K through 2026-10-14individuals $790K · PACs $28K · party $1,500 · candidate's own money, incl. loans $11K · cash on hand $90K
Outside spending
$123K opposing Conroy· latest reported 2026-10-08
Largest outside spenders
FIRE HOUSE PAC— $96K opposing Conroy
· 4 ads on this pageLargest donors:
INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES ACTION $400K (50%); CONTOURS INC. $300K (38%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) $100K (12%)MAGA INC.— $27K opposing ConroyLargest donors:
FORIS DAX, INC. $35.0M (8%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); Diane Hendricks $25.0M (6%), Hendricks Holding CO Inc., Chairman; Miriam O Adelson $25.0M (6%), LAS Vegas Sands Corporation, Director OF Community Development; GEMINI TRUST COMPANY $24.4M (6%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); Jeff Yass $16.0M (4%), Susquehanna International GRP, Managing Director
Bundled through PACs
none reported · FEC bulk data of 2026-11-01
6 PACs gave directly — alphabetical; the legal limit is $5,000 per election
AMERICAN DEFENSE AND MILITARY PAC (ADAM PAC) $2,000
LABORERS' INTERNATIONAL UNION OF NORTH AMERICA (LIUNA) PAC $5,000
FIRE HOUSE PAC— $396K opposing Baumgartner
· 4 ads on this pageLargest donors:
INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES ACTION $400K (50%); CONTOURS INC. $300K (38%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) $100K (12%)TOGETHER FOR WORKING PEOPLE— $267K opposing Baumgartner
· 2 ads on this pageLargest donors:
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) $130K (33%); SPOKANE FIR FIGHTERS UNION PAC $100K (25%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC)MAGA INC.— $25K supporting BaumgartnerLargest donors:
FORIS DAX, INC. $35.0M (8%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); Diane Hendricks $25.0M (6%), Hendricks Holding CO Inc., Chairman; Miriam O Adelson $25.0M (6%), LAS Vegas Sands Corporation, Director OF Community Development; GEMINI TRUST COMPANY $24.4M (6%) (an organization: its own funders aren't reported to the FEC); Jeff Yass $16.0M (4%), Susquehanna International GRP, Managing DirectorCIVIC RENEWAL FUND INC.— $12K supporting Baumgartner
Loaded Language: Uses emotionally charged, dismissive terms like 'woke agendas' and 'election machinations' to provoke a reaction rather than state facts.
Appeal to Fear: Evokes a threatening return to a feared past (open borders, election manipulation) to motivate action. Flagged: “We don't want to go back to woke agendas, election machinations and open borders”.
Paid for by CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDfrom 2026-10-222 variantsspend $2,400–2,998110,000–124,998 impressions
Michael Baumgartner is fighting for our priorities and getting results.
He cut taxes for Washington families. He secured funding for rural hospitals. He’ll defend Social Security and Medicare, ensure veterans get the benefits
they’ve earned, and fight to keep our neighborhoods safe.
no techniques found
Looks up the ad's factual claims in fact-checkers, primary sources and wire reporting. Takes up to a minute.
Get the result by email the day it’s called, then what the winner says in office, analyzed. And an email if it changes: a recount, a runoff, a call reversed. One-click unsubscribe.
Confirming also makes your free Semblen account, with a 14-day Pro trial. No card.
Paid for by VOTE BAUMGARTNER FOR CONGRESSfrom 2026-10-13spend $0–999,000–9,999 impressions
I grew up in Colton. I love our small towns. I've kept my promise to protect the Snake River dams and our rural communities. I know times are tough and I'll work to ensure we have good markets overseas for our products and an affordable life here at home.
Glittering Generalities: Vague, emotionally positive declaration of affection for small towns that carries no specific policy content. Flagged: “I love our small towns”.
Paid for by VOTE BAUMGARTNER FOR CONGRESSfrom 2026-10-092 variantsspend $400–59865,000–74,998 impressions
Data centers should never be forced onto a community that doesn't want them. That's why I sponsored and voted for legislation to protect ratepayers from higher rates, and to protect the environment.
Data center planning must be transparent and open to the community, and must never be put where it will hurt local citizens. That's why I sponsored legislation to protect our community.
no techniques found
Looks up the ad's factual claims in fact-checkers, primary sources and wire reporting. Takes up to a minute.
Paid for by VOTE BAUMGARTNER FOR CONGRESSfrom 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-07spend $2,500–2,999350,000–399,999 impressions
It was great to get outside and visit people at the homes. I live in Spokane and try to get to as many events as I can -- but nothing beats being in neighborhoods talking to people at home.
An ad is on this page because its own "Paid for by" line is a campaign in this race; or it comes from a national Senate group and ran mostly in WA; or it ran mostly in WA and names a candidate — unless its sponsor is a campaign for some other office. Ads from outside groups appear alongside the campaigns' own.
Campaigns run one text as many separate ads. Identical text from the same sponsor is one card here, marked with its number of variants.
A technique is a specific rhetorical move in the wording, found by our model and explained in one line. It is not a claim that the ad is false.
Claims are checked when a reader asks: press "Check this ad's claims" on a card. Running a check and seeing its verdicts are part of Semblen Pro, because each check costs money to run; anyone can see which claims an ad makes. The ten ads with the most money behind them in each race are checked ahead of time.
Claim verdicts say what the cited sources say. A verdict that an ad is wrong or misleading is shown only when it cites an established fact-checker or an institutional record — Congress, a federal agency, a court — and its confidence is not low; a weaker one is not shown at all. Each verdict shows what it rests on and how confident it is. If we got one wrong, press Disagree: a verdict that readers dispute and no one defends comes down.
Video ads come from the campaigns' own YouTube channels; the transcript is analyzed. Meta ads are analyzed on their text; their video and images are not, yet.